Key battle grounds Part 1 : Gaborone
Gaborone looks set to be a key battle area come October 24. All parties have fielded political heavyweights in all 5 constituencies and the stakes will be high. Political Analyst Leornard Sesa together with the Botswana Gazette team assess the constituencies to see how they will likely end up.
Gaborone Bonnington North
Masitara started the term where he was speaking his mind up until his Company fell afoul of BURS. He will definitely get a reduced number from the previous election leaving the battle between Duma and Anna.
Gazette Facebook Poll 8.1%
Looking at his record of advocacy and human rights issues will likely attract liberal urbanites. He goes in with a strong party and undivided compared to last elections; the strong BNF roots in the Constituency will add value to Boko’s votes. UDC sympathy vote as the President of the national project likely to be the major beneficiary from Poloko Pitwane’s failure to stand.
Gazette Facebook Poll 84%
Anna comes across as a fighter who is not giving up. She has been loyal to the constituency so she has constituency experience
Gazette Facebook Poll 7.8%
VERDICT: UDC takes the constituency
Gaborone Bonnington South
A career politician and dedicated fighter who will fight to retain the seat. To the city elites and middle class his image was dented by return to BDP from BMD. Nonetheless he is still a darling to some township dwellers; he remains in frontline of the race. He is politically street smart though.
Gazette Facebook Poll 19.6%
He did a lot of ground work interacting with constituents at seminars, workshops, family functions level. He has ongoing empowerment programs targeting students, youths and small businesses in the constituency. In general, for now, the splash factor and money spinning cannot be ignored though. Between Ndaba and Botsalo anyone who pushes hard the last 48hrs will take it.
Gazette Facebook Poll 72%
He has the constituency experience. He never gave up on this one despite the attacks that he should give the constituency to the young ones like Friday Leburu. he might maintain his numbers and increase/ decrease just a bit. Despite his massive poster presence in the constituency he will be an also ran.
Gazette Facebook Poll 8.4%
The BDP performance has deteriorated despite the efforts by Dr Nasha by then who really worked hard to gain better figures as a female candidate. The current campaign strategies have been overshadowed by UDC and BCP not well seen and received for obvious reasons that ruling political parties have few supporters in Cities. Slim chance for Rupert Hambira, whose council experience will not work at this level.
Gazette Facebook Poll 4.1%
The late coming in of Rre Phenyo Butale will greatly work for him. He needs to finish the race started by Gomolemo Motswaledi. The race is not about Phenyo but UDC. Phenyo will receive significant sympathy votes from unity believers and disgruntled BDP members and Public servants. All in all he will conspicuously ride on Motswaledi’s hard work and image. Better chances in 2019 if he stands
Gazette Facebook Poll 42%
Last elections he won the constituency with a margin of 6, 102, well outstanding figures. The New demarcation boundary which resulted in part of the Village ward now belong to Gaborone South, which BCP gained 1268 at ward level from the 2009 elections. The removal of Selemela Ward (White City) from Gaborone Central will greatly harm Dumelang Saleshando’s effort to retain the seat. Otherwise BCP has a tried and tested candidate – Party President Dignity will work for him.
Gazette Facebook Poll 47.2%
I see no chance for Baitsile for the 2014 elections. He will at least vote for himself. He is exercising his constitutional rights
Gazette Facebook Poll 6.7%
VERDICT: BCP retains seat though by slim margin
No ordinary politicians, he is out to prove that he did not win 2 last elections to by a fluke. His long absence detachment from constituents due to Ministerial Functions has dented his credibility in the eyes of voters.
Gazette Facebook Poll 18%
Mayoral functions have enabled him to be widely known in the constituency. Haskins will be basing on the strong BNF roots in the Constituency, we will be watching if the BMD factor will raise his numbers. Haskins will cash in opposition unity sympathetic votes particularly from the workers and other middle class who reside in the constituency. More votes for Haskins will give Keletso the constituency due to vote split between UDC and BCP.
Gazette Facebook Poll 62.9%
Did very well last election. The margin between her and Keletso was very narrow. Gaborone North is one constituency BCP has invested a lot in through foreign funding. All these may work to Motsei’s advantage.
Gazette Facebook Poll 19.1%
VERDICT: Too close to call, anyone of them can take it
A traditional BNF stronghold that BDP worked really hard to get. Positive developments in Zola could work for him.
Gazette Facebook Poll 17.4%
This is another area where the Umbrella will be tried and tested. He might struggle for number because of Mthimkhulu.
Gazette Facebook Poll 39%
He garnered 2361 votes under BNF, and now under BCP that got 1726 last election. Some people still bitter about his defection to BCP, he has constituency experience though.
Gazette Facebook Poll 34.9%
His ‘Born in Kasi’ slogan might work for him. He grew up in the area and he will be a kingmaker. He will likely hurt UDC more though.
Gazette Facebook Poll 8.7%
VERDICT: BDP retains the seat