But the conference did underscore the urgency of collective action against climate change. For Botswana, the path from Baku is clear: seize opportunities in climate finance, lead in regional renewable energy, and prioritise adaptation to protect its people and ecosystems
DOUGLAS RASBASH
Special to The Botswana Gazette
As COP29 – which ended last week – fades into history, the question remains: How much longer will the world tolerate a process that increasingly feels like a circus while the planet burns? If the climate movement is to succeed, it must reject the spectacle and demand substance. The lives of billions depend on it.
Yet Azerbaijan, a petrostate deeply tied to its fossil fuel wealth, hosted the event with thinly-veiled opportunism. President Ilham Aliyev called fossil fuels a “gift from God,” echoing remarks by OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais. Surely it is life-giving sunshine that is God-given, not fossil fuels, which are the remnants of death. How wrong could their statement be? Meanwhile, in private discussions, Azerbaijani officials promoted cross-border hydrocarbon drilling deals.
The outcomes of COP29 in Baku are both a call to action and a stark reminder of the challenges ahead, particularly for nations like Botswana. As a climate-vulnerable country with minimal emissions, Botswana’s participation in the UNFCCC process is not merely symbolic; it is a strategic necessity to address its unique challenges and seize emerging opportunities.
The promise of climate finance
A bright light from the COP29 is the tripling of climate finance to $300 billion annually by 2035, as per the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), which offers hope for Botswana. This funding could directly support the nation in:
- Building Climate Resilience: Financing for drought-resistant agriculture, advanced irrigation systems, and improved water management.
- Energy Transition: Supporting the move from coal dependence to solar and other renewable energy sources, essential for long-term economic diversification.
- Loss and Damage: Addressing irreversible climate impacts, such as drought-induced migration and biodiversity loss.
However, the gap between pledged and delivered funds remains a persistent concern. Botswana will need to advocate for fair allocation mechanisms that prioritise least-developed countries.
Opportunities in Carbon Markets
The finalisation of Article 6 under the Paris Agreement provides Botswana with a new avenue for revenue. By leveraging its extensive natural landscapes, especially the Okavango Delta, Botswana can:
- Develop carbon sequestration projects, such as afforestation in rural areas.
- Generate carbon credits through renewable energy initiatives.
- Create community-driven conservation programmes that align with mandatory human rights safeguards.
If Botswana positions itself effectively, it could play a key role in Southern Africa’s emerging carbon market and generate carbon offset credits for other countries and companies that would bring in around $375 million per year.
The energy transition challenge
Botswana’s coal dependence poses a significant hurdle, particularly with COP29’s emphasis on phasing out unabated coal by 2040. However, this also presents an opportunity to:
- Expand solar power capacity, utilising Botswana’s abundant sunlight.
- Explore regional clean energy trade with neighbouring countries.
- Invest in skills development and green jobs to ensure a just transition for coal-reliant communities.
Adaptation and inclusivity
The Baku Adaptation Road Map and the newly established fund for National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) offer Botswana the chance to scale up its adaptation strategies. Initiatives like urban water recycling and resilient infrastructure for rural areas could benefit from these mechanisms.
Additionally, greater inclusion of youth, civil society, and Indigenous voices in Botswana’s climate policies could enhance grassroots engagement and effectiveness.
Balancing Coal Exports with Climate Commitments
Botswana’s reliance on coal creates a moral and economic dilemma. While coal contributes to GDP, it is increasingly at odds with global decarbonisation goals. By exploring transitional measures, such as carbon capture technologies and export diversification, Botswana can mitigate risks while aligning with international climate commitments.
Lessons from COP29
The event highlighted both the potential and limitations of global climate negotiations. For Botswana, the challenge lies in moving from policy to action:
- Proactive Engagement: Ensuring Botswana’s interests are represented in subsequent COP negotiations, particularly on funding allocation.
- Policy Reforms: Aligning national policies with global trends, such as incentivising private investments in renewables and streamlining regulations.
- Capacity Building: Strengthening institutional frameworks to implement and monitor climate projects effectively.
A Call to Action
On 1st December, the new government issued its very first heat wave warning with temperatures expected to be 41C this week. Meanwhile, the above-average rainfall optimistically predicted by SADC weather experts SARCOF in August 2024 has not materialised and the drought deepens. Almost certainly heat waves and droughts will be increasing during the lifetime of this new government and the question opens as to how they will respond.
Will it be to downplay the significance and blame it on El Nino, or will the climate change dilemma finally be taken seriously. COP29 underscored the urgency of collective action against climate change.
For Botswana, the path from Baku is clear: seize opportunities in climate finance, lead in regional renewable energy, and prioritise adaptation to protect its people and ecosystems. By doing so, Botswana can not only mitigate climate risks but also position itself as a leader in the green economy.