Botswana’s unemployment crisis may be deeper than reported, as tens of thousands of discouraged job seekers have been quietly excluded from official statistics, raising questions about the true scale of the problem
GAZETTE REPORTER
Botswana’s latest unemployment figures suggest a difficult but manageable situation. The official rate stands at 21.0%, based on 213,437 people actively seeking work. But beneath that headline lies a far more troubling reality: 88,671 discouraged job seekers are no longer counted.
These are individuals who want to work and are available to work but have stopped searching because they believe no opportunities exist. By definition, they fall outside the labour force. In practice, they have effectively disappeared from the statistics.
HIDDEN NUMBERS
When these discouraged workers are added back into the equation, unemployment rises to at least 27.3%, and even that likely understates the crisis. Underemployment and informal survival activities remain largely invisible.
In response to Gazette inquiries, a senior official at the Ministry acknowledged inconsistencies in employment data, stating that authorities are aware of the issue and are reviewing the figures.
STATISTICAL SHIFT
The reclassification aligns with international standards such as those set by the International Labour Organization, which defines unemployment based on active job search. However, this technical adjustment has significant consequences.
The Botswana Multi-Topic Household Survey itself notes that apparent improvements in unemployment may reflect an increase in discouraged workers rather than actual job creation. In simple terms, people are not finding jobs — they are giving up.
WORSENING TREND
Long-term data reinforces the concern. Between 2015/16 and 2024/25, Botswana’s labour force grew by 21.7%, while employment increased by only 16.7%. Over the same period, the number of unemployed rose by 45%.
Youth unemployment remains particularly acute at 28.9%, even under the narrower definition.
Economist and political analyst Sennye Obuseng stated publicly that there is no evidence of improvement in the labour market, pointing to a contracting economy in 2024 and expected continued contraction in 2025.
“I see no evidence of an improvement in the labour market. There are no good news from industry,” said Obuseng.
REAL IMPACT
Beyond the data, the human cost is increasingly visible across communities.
Kemmonye Bogosi, an unemployed citizen who has been out of work for a decade, described the emotional toll of being effectively excluded from official statistics.
“I’ve been unemployed for ten years now… it’s deeply disturbing to realise that I may not be counted in the official statistics,” Bogosi said.
He added that prolonged unemployment has led to cycles of hopelessness, with many feeling overlooked by policy responses focused on improving headline figures rather than creating jobs.
GROWING RISK
Botswana has long framed its youthful population as a demographic dividend. However, that dividend depends on the ability to absorb young people into meaningful employment.
What is emerging instead is a demographic liability: a growing number of people who are neither employed nor counted, and therefore increasingly excluded from both economic participation and policy urgency.
As Obuseng further noted, the latest figures do not capture the full picture, warning that thousands who have given up searching are missing from the official narrative.