New research warns that an anticipated El Niño cycle could slash cereal output, drive up food imports and expose Botswana to livestock losses exceeding P1 billion.
GAZETTE REPORTER
Batswana have been warned to brace for sharp food price increases and livestock losses exceeding P1 billion if an anticipated El Niño cycle brings severe heat and rainfall shortages.
A new research paper by Parliament of Botswana researcher Oratile Joyce Lesiapeto warns that the anticipated October 2026 to March 2027 El Niño cycle could develop into a major food-security and economic shock.
Titled Projected Impacts of El-Niño on Botswana 2026, the study models a scenario involving a 5% increase in average temperatures and a 25% decline in rainfall.
CEREALS HIT
Under these conditions, Botswana could suffer an estimated 43.5% yield loss across major cereals, with sorghum production falling to approximately 16,008 tonnes and maize output collapsing to just 5,650 tonnes.
The resulting domestic supply squeeze would force Botswana to import significantly more food at a time when neighbouring countries could be facing similar climatic pressures.
Maize imports are projected to rise to 214,350 tonnes, while wheat imports could reach 126,843 tonnes.
Import dependency would exceed 97% for maize and wheat, while sorghum import dependency could jump from 7.3% to 47.63%.
PRICE PRESSURE
Lesiapeto warns that attempting to secure additional grain during a regional drought could expose Botswana to higher international prices, increased transport costs and possible export restrictions by neighbouring countries.
For households, this could translate into higher prices for staples such as maize and sorghum meal.
“Lower production matched with an increased national import burden translates into food price increases at retail level,” the paper states.
It warns that farming households could be hit twice , losing agricultural income while simultaneously paying more for food.
P1BN LIVESTOCK
The livestock sector faces an equally severe threat.
Under a moderate El Niño scenario, the research projects 148,622 cattle deaths, equivalent to a mortality rate of 15.9%.
A severe scenario could push cattle deaths to 195,359, representing 20.9% mortality.
The resulting financial losses are estimated at between P891.73 million and P1.17 billion, potentially eroding rural household wealth and weakening Botswana’s meat-production capacity.
Lesiapeto’s previous research found that rising temperatures have a detrimental short-term effect on crop yields, while rainfall has a positive effect.
EARLY ACTION
Lesiapeto argues that Botswana cannot afford to wait until drought conditions fully materialise before responding.
The paper recommends early procurement contracts for white maize and sorghum, supplementary livestock feed, borehole rehabilitation, early destocking incentives and targeted support for households dependent on rain-fed agriculture.
It also advocates greater investment in drought-resistant seed varieties, micro-irrigation, climate-smart agriculture and agricultural insurance to strengthen the country’s resilience against future climate shocks.