The Mainstreaming of Decoupling
By Douglas Rasbash
Botswana cannot grow by spending more and consuming more. Budget 26 must mark a decisive shift toward efficiency, outcomes and economic growth that uses fewer resources, not more.
SHIFTING WAVES
Economic thinking moves in waves. There was a time when growth meant expansion. More land cultivated. More roads built. More minerals extracted. More energy consumed. Economist Kenneth Boulding described this era as the cowboy economy, a world of open frontiers where progress simply meant doing more.
Botswana’s development story was born in that wave. In the early decades of independence, roads, dams, schools, clinics and power stations were precisely what development required. Infrastructure was progress. Spending was growth.
SPACEMAN ECONOMY
The world has moved on. Resources are constrained. Water is scarce. Energy is costly. Climate risk is real. Modern economies no longer grow by using more. They grow by using less, more intelligently.
Boulding called this the spaceman economy, where success is measured by efficiency, productivity and the ability to separate economic growth from resource consumption. Here lies the uncomfortable truth. Botswana is still budgeting as if it lives in the cowboy economy.
BUDGET MOMENT
Budget 26 is the moment for the Second Republic to acknowledge that the economic model itself must change.
Last year’s budget named many of the right problems. Unemployment. Gender violence. Digitisation. Energy. Infrastructure. But it defined none of the outcomes. Twelve months later, basic questions remain unanswered. Did unemployment fall. Did gender violence decline. Did digitisation improve services. Did energy and water use become more productive.
A budget that measures spending rather than results cannot answer these questions.
DECOUPLING
Budget 26 must mainstream a concept rarely heard in budget speeches. Decoupling.
Decoupling means an economy grows without proportional increases in energy use, water use, transport volumes, imports or government size. It shifts focus from how much is produced to how efficiently it is produced.
It is not megawatts generated but energy consumed per unit of GDP. It is not litres of water used but water used per pula of GDP. It is not kilometres of road built but how efficiently goods and people move. It is not the size of government but the value generated per civil servant.
Botswana does not currently measure any of this.
ENERGY BLINDSPOT
How many kilowatt hours does Botswana use to produce one pula of GDP. We do not know. Yet generation capacity is expanding without clarity on what problem is being solved.
Water is even more urgent. Botswana is one of the most water stressed countries in the world. Research suggests more than 270 litres of water are required to produce a single unit of GDP, among the highest globally. Yet there is no national target to improve water productivity across agriculture, mining, households or industry.
OUTCOMES FIRST
A performance budget does not start with ministries and allocations. It starts with outcomes.
By the end of the financial year, government should be able to say youth unemployment fell because programmes were tied directly to job creation. Gender violence declined because funding was linked to policing, prevention and victim support. Services moved online and citizens experienced the difference. The economy used less energy and water per unit of GDP.
These are outcomes, not activities.
NDP REALITY
NDP12 was designed for a fiscal envelope that no longer exists. Diamond revenues are under pressure. Deficits are rising. Resources are limited. Pursuing every project spreads funding too thinly to create impact anywhere.
Budget 26 should announce a rapid review and prioritisation of NDP12 so that only projects that clearly improve national outcome indicators are funded. This is not retreat. It is focus.
DIGITAL LEAP
Digitisation is the fastest governance reform available. Botswana ranks poorly on global e Government measures. Within one year, licensing, tax, registration, procurement and permits could be online.
Digitisation reduces administrative costs, improves transparency, speeds up business creation and improves service delivery. Few capital investments can match this impact.
EMOBILITY
Electric mobility is the clearest expression of decoupling. Botswana spends billions importing fuel. That money leaves the economy. Electric vehicles shift spending into domestic electricity, much of it solar, keeping value inside Botswana.
This transition reduces imports, improves energy security, lowers transport costs, cuts the price of goods and food and creates new industries. It is not just a transport issue. It is an economic strategy.
STATE LIMITS
The developer state model has reached its limits. It was built for an era when government had to build and operate everything. That era has passed. Botswana now has private capital, pension funds and skills. Yet government still acts as operator rather than enabler.
This structure has become a drag on growth.
RIGHT SIZING
Fiscal pressure is increasing. Wage bills and recurrent expenditure consume a growing share of the budget. If government does not deliberately right size itself, it will eventually be forced to do so abruptly.
Right sizing is economic maturity. Decoupling applies to government too. Better services must be delivered with fewer processes, fewer layers and smarter systems. Digitisation makes this possible.
FINAL SHIFT
Budget 26 should be judged by whether Botswana reduces the electricity, fuel, water and administrative effort required to produce each unit of GDP while increasing the proportion of government services delivered online.
This budget must tell citizens what will change, not what will be bought. Botswana must grow by using less, not more. Efficiency is now the engine of growth.
That is the shift from cowboy to spaceman. That is the mainstreaming of decoupling.
FIVE KEY NUMBERS FOR INFOGRAPHICS
- 193 kWh
Electricity used per US$1,000 of GDP - 11,460 litres
Water used per US$1,000 of GDP - 0.274
Botswana UN Online Service Index score - 7,800
Civil servants per US$1 billion of GDP - Billions of pula
Annual fuel import cost leaving the economy
Economic thinking moves in waves. There was a time when growth meant expansion: more land cultivated, more roads built, more minerals extracted, more energy consumed. This was the era the economist Kenneth Boulding described as the cowboy economy — a world of open frontiers where progress simply meant doing more. Botswana’s development story was born in that wave. In the early decades of independence, building roads, dams, schools, clinics and power stations was precisely what progress required. Infrastructure was development. Spending was growth. But the world has moved into a different wave of economic thinking. Resources are constrained. Water is scarce. Energy is costly. Climate risk is real. Economies no longer grow by using more. They grow by using less, more intelligently. Boulding called this the spaceman economy — where success is measured by efficiency, productivity and the ability to decouple economic growth from resource consumption. And here lies the uncomfortable truth: Botswana is still budgeting as if it lives in the cowboy economy.
Budget 26 is the moment for the Second Republic to acknowledge that the economic model itself must change. Last Year’s Budget Named the Problems — But Measured None. Last year’s budget spoke eloquently about unemployment, gender violence, digitisation, infrastructure, energy and culture. But it never defined what success would look like. Twelve months later, we cannot answer simple questions. Did unemployment fall? Did gender violence reduce? Did digitisation improve? Did government become more efficient? Did energy use become more productive? Did water use become more efficient? The budget must answer these questions and cannot continue to measure how much is spent, not what changes because of it.
Budget 26 Must Introduce: Decoupling. Budget 26 must mainstream a concept rarely heard in budget speeches: decoupling. Decoupling means an economy grows without proportional increases in Energy use, Water use, Transport Produced, Imports, Government size and administrative complexity. It is not MWh of energy generated but energy consumed per unit of GDP, similarly it is not water consumed, but water used per unit of GDP; It is not km or roads nut net tons of good and passenger transported per km of road. It is not the size of government -, but civil servants per billion pula of GDP produced and so on. The linkage between resources consumed and economic output is crucial by utterly neglected aspect of Botswana Governance, and it must change. The most advanced economies in the world now grow GDP while reducing resource intensity. Botswana has never measured this and actually do the opposite. Energy Intensity – How many kilowatt-hours does Botswana use to produce one pula of GDP? We do not know. Yet we are adding gigawatts of power generation. To achieve what exactly? A performance budget would set a target to reduce energy intensity of GDP within a year. Water Intensity, a recent paper noted that we need 273 litres of water to produce a one unit of GDP. One of the highest in the world. Botswana is one of the most water-stressed countries in the world. Yet we do not measure how many litres of water are used to produce one pula of GDP. Agriculture, mining, households and industry depend on water. But there is no national target to improve water productivity.
From Inputs to Outcomes
The performance budget does not start with ministries and allocations. It starts with what must change in society. By the end of the next financial year, government should be able to say: Youth unemployment fell because programmes were tied directly to job numbers. Gender violence declined because funding was tied to policing, victim support and prevention metrics. Botswana’s global e-Government ranking rose sharply because real services moved online. The economy used less energy and less water per unit of GDP because efficiency targets were set. Small businesses started faster because regulation was digitised. Internet access expanded. Logistics costs fell. Citizens experienced better services. These are outcomes. Not activities.
Why NDP12 Must Be Reviewed and Prioritised
NDP12 was designed for a fiscal envelope that no longer exists. Diamond revenues are under pressure. Deficits are rising. Resources are limited. Continuing to pursue every project spreads funds too thinly to create impact anywhere. Budget 26 should announce a rapid review and prioritisation of NDP12 so that only projects that clearly improve national outcome indicators are funded. This is not retreat. It is focus.
Digitisation: The Fastest Governance Reform Available. Botswana ranks poorly in global e-Government performance. Within one year, licensing, tax, registration, procurement and permits could be online. Digitisation would reduce administrative costs, improve transparency, enable business creation, reduce corruption, improve service delivery and create digital jobs. Few capital projects can match this impact.
eMobility: The Practical Expression of Decoupling. A rapid transition to electric mobility perfectly illustrates the new economic model. Botswana spends billions importing fuel. That money leaves the economy. Electric vehicles shift that spending into domestic electricity — much of it solar — keeping value inside Botswana. This transition improves GDP by reducing imports, creates jobs in charging and maintenance, improves energy security, reduces household transport costs, lowers the cost of goods and food, and drives diversification into green technology. Very few policies achieve so much across so many fronts. Budget 26 should elevate eMobility from a transport topic to a national economic strategy.
The Developer State Model Has Reached Its Limits. Botswana’s public sector was designed for a very different era when government had to build, own and operate almost everything because nobody else could. That era has passed. Today Botswana has pension funds, banks, private capital, skilled professionals and access to global markets. Yet government is still structured as if it must personally deliver every service and manage every process. What was once a driver of development has become a drag on it. The developer state model has outlived its usefulness.
Right-Sizing Government Is an Economic Necessity. Botswana’s fiscal position is tightening. Diamond revenues are volatile. Deficits are widening. Recurrent expenditure and the wage bill consume an ever-growing share of the budget. This is not sustainable in a slower-growing economy. If Botswana does not deliberately and intelligently right-size government, it will eventually be forced to do so abruptly and painfully by its creditors. Countries do not choose austerity. They are pushed into it. Right-sizing government now is an act of economic maturity, not weakness. Decoupling Applies to Government Too Botswana must learn to deliver better services with fewer processes, fewer layers, fewer delays and ultimately a leaner administrative structure. Digitisation makes this possible. Simplification makes this possible. A shift from government as operator to government as enabler makes this possible. Savings from this reform can be redirected into programmes that create jobs and measurable outcomes.
The Ten Actions Budget 26 Should Announce
- Introduce outcome-based budgeting across all ministries.
- Review and reprioritise NDP12 within 90 days.
- Launch a national e-Government acceleration programme.
- Introduce energy intensity of GDP as a national metric.
- Introduce water intensity of GDP as a national metric.
- Declare a national eMobility transition plan.
- Link all infrastructure spending to GDP and job metrics.
- Digitise business processes within one year.
- Right-size administrative government.
- Publish annual national outcome indicators.
Budget 26 — Decoupling KPI Snapshot
| Icon | Decoupling Area | KPI (Intensity Measure) | Current Baseline | Budget Direction |
| ⚡⚡ | Electricity | kWh per US$1,000 GDP | 193 kWh | ⬇ Reduce 25% |
| 🚗🚗 | Transport Energy | kWh fuel per US$1,000 GDP | 609 kWh | ⬇ To 300 kWh by 2036 |
| 💧💧 | Water | Litres per US$1,000 GDP | 11,460 L | ⬇ Reduce 30% |
| 💻💻 | Digital Governance (UN OSI) | Online Service Index (0–1) | 0.274 | ⬆ Double by 2030 |
| 🗳🗳 | E-Participation (UN EPI) | E-Participation Index (0–1) | 0.170 | ⬆ Triple by 2030 |
| 🏛🏛 | Governance Intensity | Staff per US$1bn GDP | 7,800 | ⬇ Reduce 30–40% |
Budget 26 should be judged by whether Botswana reduces the electricity, fuel, water and administrative effort needed to produce each unit of GDP — while sharply increasing the proportion of government that works online.
The Messages Citizens Should Hear. This budget is about what will change, not what will be bought. Botswana must grow by using less, not more. Efficiency is the new engine of growth. NDP12 must fit the resources we actually have. eMobility and digitisation are economic strategies. Government must shrink so outcomes can grow.
The Key Take Away from Budget 26 is that Botswana will no longer measure how much government spends; Botswana will measure what changes because government spends. That is the shift from cowboy to spaceman. That is the mainstreaming of decoupling. And that is what must define Budget 26 if the Second Republic is to be more than a change of faces and speeches.