The victory of Donald Trump on 6 November in America was not less historic than the victory of the UDC a few days before in Botswana. This means that both the USA and Botswana will start with a clean sheet and new ideas to improve their respective countries. Special Correspondent DOUGLAS RASBASH examines how America’s Trump-led Republican government is likely to aim at balancing US self-interest with targeted support for Africa’s youth-driven growth (BLURB)
While The Botswana Gazette has presented an overview of the manifesto of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) in previous editions, the question now is what will be the impact of the US administration on Botswana, Africa and beyond.
Under a Trump-led Republican administration, the US is likely to adopt a recalibrated approach to Africa, focusing on selective engagement that directly benefits American interests while supporting Africa’s burgeoning youth population. Africa, with a median age under 20, faces high unemployment and significant socio-economic challenges but also offers untapped economic potential and geopolitical importance.
With careful investment and strategic alliances, Trump’s policies will likely support American economic, security and diplomatic interests while fostering stable, pro-US partnerships across the continent.
- “America First” Trade and Economic Empowerment Initiatives
A Trump administration will prioritise trade policies that deliver direct benefits to American businesses while aligning with Africa’s demand for growth and economic freedom. Recognising the continent’s immense market potential, especially in technology, agriculture and manufacturing, the Republican agenda is likely to support US-Africa trade relationships that create pathways for American exports and investments.
- Targeted Investment Incentives: Rather than broad, untethered aid, the US will incentivise American companies to invest in Africa with a focus on sectors critical for job creation and economic stability. Investments will be conditioned on African nations reducing red tape and fostering an environment where US companies can operate without excessive government interference. Key sectors could include agribusiness where Africa’s young farmers are leading technological innovations, and technology startups in places like Kenya and Nigeria where mobile money and fintech are transforming the economy.
- Specialized Visa Programmes for Entrepreneurs: A Trump administration might develop new merit-based visa programmes that target Africa’s most talented entrepreneurs, particularly those with innovative business ideas aligned with US interests. By creating structured immigration pathways, this policy would incentivise entrepreneurship, offer alternatives to illegal immigration, and channel talent into partnerships beneficial to both economies.
- Strengthening US Export Opportunities: The US will pursue trade agreements that open African markets to American goods, with a focus on agricultural products, technology and industrial equipment. By lowering barriers to American exports, the US can address Africa’s need for high-quality imports while strengthening its domestic industries.
- Workforce Development and Educational Alliances for Mutual Benefit
A Trump-led government is may invest in Africa’s young workforce by expanding targeted educational initiatives that emphasise practical, job-ready skills aligned with US business needs. STEM education, vocational training, and entrepreneurship programmes would create a pipeline of skilled workers suited for sectors that require a trained workforce.
- STEM and Vocational Programmes: Recognising Africa’s young population as a future workforce for American businesses, Trump’s administration could support partnerships that focus on STEM and technical education. Programmes would teach digital literacy, engineering and trade skills that US companies need for competitive global markets. These partnerships would be highly conditional, emphasising transparency and ensuring that American curricula and educational materials are protected from misuse or ideological distortion.
- Technology Partnerships with Oversight: US support for digital education will come with conditions designed to protect American technology from theft and limit exposure to Chinese or other adversarial tech influences. By partnering with trusted institutions, the US will ensure that its technological investments in education directly benefit American business interests while maintaining a secure, pro-American digital infrastructure in Africa.
- Good Governance and Transparency as Conditions for US Support
The Trump administration will focus on governance and accountability, ensuring that American assistance benefits nations demonstrating transparency, reducing corruption and encouraging free-market reforms. In line with conservative values, this approach will avoid unconditional aid, instead rewarding governments that promote stability, democracy and economic freedom.
- Aid Tied to Transparency: US aid will be contingent on visible, measurable progress in reducing corruption and promoting transparent governance. Only governments committed to democratic principles and anti-corruption reforms will be eligible for substantial US support. For example, programmes in countries like Ghana, where strides have been made towards accountable governance, could serve as models.
- Supporting Local Anti-Corruption Technologies: Trump’s administration is likely to back digital platforms that make African governments more transparent to their citizens. By supporting technologies that offer real-time visibility into public finances, the US would empower African youth to hold their leaders accountable, thereby fostering long-term stability aligned with American values.
- Energy Independence and Environmental Resilience
Recognising Africa’s pressing energy and environmental challenges, a Republican agenda under Trump will pursue policies that advance US economic interests while helping African countries achieve energy resilience. Unlike previous administrations, this approach will prioritise private sector involvement over government-led solutions.
- Investment in American-Led Energy Projects: Trump’s energy policy will focus on fostering US investments in Africa’s natural resources, including oil, gas and renewable energy. While renewable energy initiatives such as solar and wind power will be supported, fossil fuel projects are likely to take precedence, offering job creation for Africans and returns for American investors.
- Support for Environmental Resilience Over Carbon Targets: Given Africa’s unique environmental vulnerabilities, such as drought and food insecurity, Trump’s policies will focus on adaptation strategies instead of strict carbon reduction goals. Initiatives might include water management systems, drought-resistant crops and soil health programmes, all of which help mitigate climate impacts without constraining African economies.
- Security Partnerships with Strategic Goals
Security will be a major pillar of Trump’s Africa policy. Given Africa’s vulnerability to terrorist influences, the administration will prioritise military partnerships that create stability, counter extremism and protect U.S. interests.
- Military Cooperation Against Terrorism: US assistance will strengthen African nations’ capacity to counter extremist groups, particularly in regions like the Sahel and East Africa, where terrorism poses a major threat to stability. American advisors will work with African military forces, emphasising joint operations, intelligence sharing and strategic defence, and linking this support to tangible security outcomes.
- Security Aid with Accountability: Security assistance will come with stringent oversight to ensure that American funds are used effectively. By embedding US advisors and demanding transparency, the administration will reduce corruption and inefficiency within African defence programmes.
- Digital Infrastructure and Technology with “America First” Principles
In line with Trump’s preference for self-reliance and American technology leadership, his administration will promote US-led digital infrastructure projects that counteract the dominance of Chinese technology in Africa.
- Encouraging US Digital Ecosystems: A Trump administration will prioritise American tech firms in building Africa’s digital infrastructure. This approach will promote US internet service providers, telecommunications firms and cybersecurity companies, ensuring a secure digital environment with minimal Chinese or Russian influence.
- Protecting Intellectual Property: With concerns over intellectual property rights, the administration will take a hard stance on tech partnerships, ensuring that American innovations are protected. This policy will aim to prevent tech piracy while creating a competitive environment that favours American businesses.
- Selective Cultural and Diplomatic Exchanges
Trump’s administration is likely to engage in selective cultural diplomacy that strategically targets young African leaders, emphasising programmes that reinforce American values of individual liberty, entrepreneurship, and democratic governance.
- Youth Cultural Exchange Programs: Exchanges would target young leaders aligned with American ideals of individualism and free-market principles. These programmes would aim to create a pro-American influence among the youth, ensuring long-term diplomatic and cultural ties with emerging leaders.
- Promoting English and US-Friendly Curricula: English language and American-style educational programmes are likely to be prioritised as soft power tools, reinforcing the US as an ally in Africa’s economic growth. Curricula emphasising entrepreneurship, democracy and economic freedom would be promoted.
- UN Climate Change and Multilateralism: An Africa-Focused Realignment
A new Republican administration under Trump will approach multilateral climate efforts with caution, emphasising national sovereignty and resisting binding commitments that impose limits on US economic growth or constrain Africa’s development trajectory. While recognising the importance of climate action, Trump’s policies will advocate for a balanced approach that does not hinder Africa’s industrialisation or economic opportunities.
- Focus on Adaptation Over Emissions Reduction for Africa: The administration may advocate for African nations to prioritise climate adaptation measures, such as drought resilience, flood protection, and food security, over stringent emissions cuts. A Trump administration may argue that Africa’s contributions to global greenhouse gases are relatively small, and that imposing strict emissions reduction targets could stifle its growth. Instead, the US would support adaptation funding that directly addresses Africa’s vulnerability to climate impacts without compromising its right to develop.
- Advocating for Sovereignty in Climate Decisions: Trump’s administration will push back against any UN climate frameworks that appear to limit African nations’ rights to choose their own developmental paths. The US would resist multilateral climate treaties that could penalise African countries for tapping into their fossil fuel resources, arguing that Africa should retain full autonomy over its energy strategy. This would appeal to African nations, many of which are frustrated by global climate commitments that they feel disproportionately burden developing economies.
- Promotion of Market-Based Solutions and Private Investment: Rather than funnelling taxpayer-funded aid through international bodies, the administration will encourage private sector-led climate resilience initiatives in Africa. By emphasising market-based approaches, such as American investments in renewable energy infrastructure or water management projects, the US will promote practical solutions that align with “America First” principles while helping African countries strengthen their economies.
- Reducing Dependency on Chinese and Multilateral Loans: Trump’s policies will aim to counterbalance China’s significant role in climate finance across Africa. The administration will promote US businesses as alternative partners for climate-related projects, positioning American firms to lead in sectors like renewable energy, water management and agriculture. This approach will both support Africa’s climate resilience and reduce its dependency on Chinese financing, fostering stronger economic and diplomatic ties with the US.
In essence, the Trump administration’s approach to multilateral climate efforts would focus on supporting Africa’s climate adaptation without constraining its development. By promoting sovereignty and market-driven climate solutions, the US will position itself as a practical, pro-development partner to African nations facing the realities of climate change.
In summary, a Trump-led Republican government is likely to pursue a practical, results-driven approach in Africa, aiming to balance US self-interest with targeted support for Africa’s youth-driven growth. By promoting private investment, workforce development, governance reform and security partnerships, this administration would strategically foster a stable, pro-American environment across Africa, ensuring mutual benefits while countering the influence of adversarial powers.
This approach would underscore the Trump administration’s commitment to “America First” while recognising the significant role that a stable and prosperous Africa can play in global security and economic dynamics.