Botswana’s tourism must pivot from exclusivity to experience – from being a niche conservation model for a few to being an engine of livelihoods and dignity for many
DOUGLAS RASBASH
Special Correspondent
As Botswana hosts the 40th annual HATAB Conference in Maun on 24 and 25 April, tourism leaders will gather to reflect on the past and chart a course for the future. Among the attendees will be President Duma Boko, whose new administration inherits not only a proud conservation legacy but also a sobering economic reality.
Botswana experienced a technical recession in 2024, marked by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The country’s economy contracted by 0.5% in Q2 2024 and by 4.3% in Q3 2024, primarily due to a downturn in the diamond market.
This downturn, coupled with weaker performance in non-mining sectors, led to a decline in export earnings, constraining government spending and overall economic activity.
To bring home the realities Moody’s has assigned Botswana an “A3” long-term local and foreign currency issuer rating, but has revised the outlook to negative from stable. This means the rating agency maintains confidence in Botswana’s creditworthiness, but is concerned about potential future economic challenges. It is no longer expedient for the government to count on a diamond led recovery as was predicted in both the 2024 and 2025 budgets.
Tourism remains the only significant non-mining sector, hence industry leaders and the government must rethink the tourism offering. It is time to confront a central contradiction in our tourism strategy — one that is rarely discussed but urgently needs rethinking.
For decades, Botswana has pursued a High Value, Low Volume (HVLV) tourism model. This approach, pioneered in the Delta and the Chobe, was based on the noble goal of conservation financing and minimising environmental degradation. But that era is over. The model that once preserved our pristine wilderness is no longer capable of driving economic diversification or inclusive growth.
Let’s Unpack the Economics
An HVLV tourist who flies into the Okavango Delta on a luxury package pays a premium, which seems impressive until you follow the money. Most of that revenue is offshore, captured by foreign-owned safari brands, international booking platforms, and aviation services that are not domiciled in Botswana. What stays behind pays for food, fuel, local wages, and park fees.
By contrast, a LVHV tourist in a mid-market hotel or guesthouse spends locally on Wi-Fi, beer, braai packs, airtime, craft goods, fuel, transport, groceries, SIM cards, and much more. These tourist dollars stay in Botswana, and better yet, they circulate — with higher multiplier effects across local supply chains. The economic impact per pula is broader, more equitable, and more sustainable.
This is not a call to abandon luxury safaris. Far from it, it’s a call to balance the portfolio and open up to new segments: regional and domestic tourists, family travellers, young adventurers, diasporans and cultural explorers. As the bar chart shows, our HVLV tourism policy places Botswana near the bottom of the most favoured African visitor destinations.
Infrastructure Underutilisation
In 2023/24, airports under the Civil Aviation Authority of Botswana (CAAB) processed 784,832 passengers, according to Stats Botswana. However, the total design capacity of CAAB airports is 8.5 million (assuming hourly flows for a 16-hour day), so this means that our airports are 90% under-used, as illustrated on the bar chart.
The consequences of airport under-utilisation are that in the 2023/24 financial year, CAAB received a government subvention of P137.5 million, marking a 6% increase from the previous year. This funding was allocated for operational support and maintenance activities. Additionally, under the Transitional National Development Plan (2023–25), CAAB was allocated P548 million for development projects, including infrastructure upgrades and modernisation efforts. Despite achieving a record revenue of P265 million in 2023/24 – a 46% increase from the previous year – CAAB continues to rely on government support to sustain its operations and development initiatives.
In the 2023/24 financial year, Air Botswana received a government subsidy of P165.8 million to support its operations and fleet refurbishment. This allocation was part of the Transitional National Development Plan and was increased from an initial proposal of P133.6 million to address the airline’s financial challenges. The additional funds were sourced by reallocating budget from civil aviation infrastructure projects. In addition, the government buys the operator its aircraft and has invested P700 million. The Total Annual Subsidies (Operational + Amortised over 10 years) is given in the table.
| Source | Annual Subsidy (BWP) |
|---|---|
| CAAB Operating | 270 million |
| CAAB Amortized Investment | 50 million |
| Air Botswana Operating | 400 million |
| AB Amortized Investment | 50 million |
| Total | 770 million |
Each passenger is being subsidised by the tax payer. CAAB receives P380 per passenger while Air Botswana P1,825 per passenger. This suggests that HVLV tourists, who are most likely to use air travel, are indirectly subsidised by taxpayers to the tune of nearly $130 USD per passenger. What this means is that we are literally flying in “high-value” tourists at a loss per head while underutilising assets (airports, roads, national parks, cultural events and so on) that could attract millions of everyday travellers who spread their money wider and deeper in the economy. This is not sustainable in the present and indeed any future economic climate.
Road Infrastructure
But in addition to Botswana’s airports and airways being considerably underused, so is the country’s road network. Botswana boasts more paved roads per capita than any other country on the African continent. While it has been a wonderful achievement, it has also become a huge challenge to finance. LVHV tourism does little to contribute to funding roads whereas HVLV tourism would most certainly help. One action that should be taken to attract LVHV tourists would be the Botswana Blue Route.
Hidden within the government-approved National Transport Master Plan (2022) lies The Botswana Blue Route (BBR). Inspired by South Africa’s famed Garden Route, this bold vision reimagines connectivity across Botswana by linking rural communities and tourism hubs in a circular journey around the country. Unlike traditional road-based development, the Blue Route maximises existing infrastructure, creating a network that weaves together local businesses, cultural sites, community projects, and natural wonders. From the Limpopo Valley to the Okavango Panhandle, it offers tourists a rich, authentic experience while stimulating jobs and entrepreneurship across the rural heartland.
To bring the Blue Route to life, Botswana needs a dedicated secretariat to coordinate stakeholders, keep information up to date, and attract sponsorship. A graphic accompanying this article shows the core links and attractions – each a potential hotspot for investment and community pride.
The Botswana Blue Route aligns perfectly with a Low-Value, High-Volume (LVHV) tourism strategy. Unlike the elite High-Value, Low-Volume model, LVHV spreads income more broadly – supporting fuel stations, food vendors, WiFi providers, lodges, guides and countless small enterprises. This is not just about tourism; it’s about reimagining development. By empowering rural communities, celebrating Botswana’s diversity, and inviting visitors to journey deeper, the Botswana Blue Route can become a national legacy.
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Rewriting the Tourism Value Proposition
With diamonds declining and credit ratings slipping, Botswana cannot afford to leave tourism’s full potential untapped. Diversifying the economy through tourism itself is both possible and urgent. That means rewriting the tourism proposition to move up the African visitor league table, not by squeezing more into the Okavango but by creating new destinations and experiences across the country.
Imagine these: theme and adventure parks in Gaborone and Francistown, cultural festivals and sporting events with international appeal, health tourism in serene lakeside or dam settings, inland water tourism on our vast, and underutilised reservoirs like Letsibogo and Dikgatlhong. Consider road trips via the Blue Route circuits through the Tuli Block, the Kalahari, and the Makgadikgadi and community tourism in villages with immersive storytelling and homestays. Every one of these opportunities is labour-intensive, inclusive and multipliers-rich – far more capable of absorbing youth unemployment than a handful of bush lodges charging $2,000 per night.
Botswana’s tourism must pivot from exclusivity to experience. From extractive to circulatory. From being a niche conservation model for a few to being an engine of livelihoods and dignity for many. We need infrastructure that supports people – not just prestige visitors. We need to empower local entrepreneurs, not just foreign operators. And we need to remember that tourism, like any other sector, must evolve or become obsolete.
In the post-diamond era, the HVLV model, revered as it was, simply cannot scale. The maths doesn’t lie, neither does the moment. Let’s open the doors and welcome more people. Let’s build a tourism economy that works for Botswana.