By Douglas Rasbash

Botswana’s sprinters know something our economic planners seem to have forgotten you win races by running in the right direction. On the track, the baton moves forward with precision, discipline, timing and trust. Every runner knows the job. Every handover matters. Every mistake costs milliseconds. There is no room for theatre, speeches, fantasy, or wishful thinking.

FORWARD MOTION

Performance is measured at the finish line. If only the economy were being run with the same seriousness. While our athletes race forward, the economy is moving backwards. The signs are no longer subtle. They are flashing orange in the most recent economic commentary from Econsult, but they should be red. Inflation is heading sharply upwards and could reach double digits. Growth is collapsing. The post-diamond fiscal model is breaking. Public spending is expanding just as revenues weaken. The country is borrowing more, importing more, producing too little, and announcing too much.

WARNING SIGNS

Botswana is entering one of the most difficult economic periods since independence. GDP growth could swing from the temporary Q3 spike into renewed contraction. Inflation could rise towards 10%. The pula will remain under pressure. Bond yields will rise. Household incomes will be squeezed. Credit conditions will tighten. And unless corrective action is taken urgently, Botswana’s credit rating could fall into junk status within the next twelve months.

DIAMOND ILLUSION

The most dangerous illusion is that diamonds will save us again. They will not. There may be short recoveries, inventory adjustments, or temporary sales improvements, but the old diamond era is over. The global natural diamond market has changed structurally. Lab-grown diamonds, shifting consumer preferences, weak luxury demand and changing value perceptions have damaged the old certainty. Botswana cannot plan as if yesterday’s diamond economy will return tomorrow.

FINAL TRUTH

Suspend unaffordable plans. Rebuild NDP12 around fiscal reality. Stop theatrical mega-project announcements. Right-size government. Protect pension funds. Defend the credit rating. Prioritise exports. Build regional financial services. Accelerate solar and e-mobility. Support real SMEs. Reform parastatals. Price risk honestly. Tell citizens the truth. Botswana does not lack talent. It lacks economic discipline. Our sprinters are racing toward the finish line. The economy, sadly, is running the other way.