Afrobarometer findings show approval of China’s influence halving over a decade, raising questions about the durability of Beijing’s goodwill in Botswana.
GAZETTE REPORTER
Batswana’s positive perceptions of China have fallen sharply over the past decade, with a new Afrobarometer survey showing a dramatic decline in the proportion who view Beijing’s influence favourably.
The share of citizens who regard China’s influence on Botswana as positive fell from 74 percent in 2014 to 37 percent in 2024, a drop of 37 percentage points.
Only half of Batswana (50 percent) now believe China’s economic activities have some or a lot of influence on the national economy, down from 76 percent in 2014.
Goodwill Wanes
The findings suggest that despite China’s longstanding diplomatic ties and substantial economic footprint in Botswana, its influence no longer attracts the optimism it did a decade ago.
“Notably, perceptions of China’s influence on Botswana as substantial and positive have declined sharply over the past decade,” the report states.
It adds: “the proportion of citizens who see China’s influence on Botswana as substantial has declined sharply compared to a decade ago (from 76% to 50%), as has the share who see China’s influence as positive (from 74% to 37%).”
Social Divide
Men and urban residents are more likely than women and residents of peri-urban and rural communities to regard China’s influence as substantial and beneficial.
Education also shapes perceptions. Respondents with higher education are twice as likely as those with primary education or no formal schooling to consider China’s influence significant, at 67 percent against 33 percent.
Half of highly educated respondents view the influence positively, compared with 23 percent of those with primary or no formal education.
Among economically better-off citizens, 43 percent assess China’s economic impact positively, compared with between 32 and 34 percent of poorer respondents.
Pandemic Recognition
China nevertheless retains goodwill for its response during the COVID-19 pandemic. Asked which country or organisation had been most helpful to Botswana, 46 percent named China, ahead of the United States at 10 percent and the African Union and Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention at five percent.
Another 35 percent were uncertain about Botswana’s biggest benefactor during the pandemic.
The contrast suggests that appreciation for crisis assistance has not translated into sustained confidence in China’s broader influence.