… Batswana ditch the BDP after five decades of uninterrupted rule
In a historic turn of events in Botswana politics, opposition parties have secured a majority of council seats in the 2024 elections, a development that signals a potential end to the longstanding rule of the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), which has governed the nation continuously since independence in 1966.
The opposition parties have won most council wards, adding weight to speculation that a similar pattern should play out in the parliamentary elections where early results also seem to be leaning in favour of the opposition.
By press time, the UDC had already secured several parliamentary seats and was leading in most remaining constituencies, with the BCP and BPF trailing behind, while the BDP was performing poorly.
This development has stirred mixed reactions and anticipation, with the opposition almost confident of a new dawn while the BDP appears divided between some resigned to defeat and others warning of a powerful BDP comeback. The magical number of parliamentary seats that a party needs to assume power is 31 seats.
A Hung Parliament or Straight UDC Victory?
This outcome of council elections has prompted political analysts to project varying scenarios. Some foresee a hung parliament, given the council results as an indication that the BDP’s long-standing support base has significantly waned. Others are suggesting that the momentum behind the UDC could indeed lead to a clear parliamentary victory, potentially ushering in the first change of government in Botswana’s history. In contrast, a faction of BDP loyalists remains optimistic, arguing that the ruling party could regain its footing in parliamentary elections.
If opposition dominance in council seats reflects the nation’s appetite for change, the BDP may face a historic test. A hung parliament could allow smaller parties or independents to play kingmaker roles, aligning either with the BDP or the opposition. This potential outcome has further stoked debate about whether the BDP could withstand a shift to the opposition, having never been on that side of the aisle in nearly six decades.
In response to questions about a potential hung parliament, leading opposition parties, the UDC and the BCP, have consistently emphasised that they have no intention of sharing power with the BDP, signalling that even in the event of a stalemate, the opposition’s goal is a complete change of power rather than a coalition with the ruling party of longstanding.
What if no Party Achieves the Minimum 31 Seats for Majority?
According to Justice Professor Key Dingake, the answer is that if the Chief Justice, as the Returning Officer, pursuant to Section 32 (3) (d) of the Constitution declares that no party has reached the required 31 seats, and therefore no candidate has been elected, the new National Assembly shall meet within 14 days after the results of the elections have been ascertained to elect a President.
Election of the President by the National Assembly
According to Section 32 (6) (b) of Botswana’s Constitution, the election of the President by the National Assembly must follow the procedures specified in section 35 (5), which stipulates that the election process requires that the Speaker preside over the National Assembly meeting and conduct the election.
“For an individual to be eligible as a presidential candidate, they must secure a nomination from at least 10 members of the National Assembly before the session begins. During the election, all Assembly members except the Speaker have the right to vote, and voting is conducted by secret ballot,” posits Justice Dingake.
To win, a presidential candidate must receive at least 31 votes. “If necessary, multiple ballots – up to a maximum of five – can be taken, though only one ballot may occur per Assembly sitting. If, after the first or subsequent ballots, no candidate reaches the required number of votes to be elected, Parliament is dissolved. Additionally, if the election is taking place in accordance with Section 32 (6), and no candidate is elected after the prescribed ballots, the election is declared void,” adds Dingake.
Once the President is elected, he or she is free to form a government by appointing members of the cabinet. This government, Dingake says, can be a coalition government formed by MPs from different parties.
Factors Behind BDP Decline
This political shift, according to observers, comes amid growing public dissatisfaction with issues ranging from a shrinking economy, job losses, high unemployment and inequality to accusations of corruption and elite enrichment. Botswana, once hailed for its stable democracy and robust economy, has struggled to maintain that image as structural challenges remain unresolved. Younger voters, particularly in urban areas, appear increasingly disillusioned with the BDP’s policies and promises, seeing the opposition as a fresh and potentially more responsive alternative.
Additionally, opposition leaders have capitalised on these sentiments, consolidating forces and mounting strategic campaigns that target urban and rural voters alike. Meanwhile, the BDP’s traditional strengths in rural areas have started to erode as citizens in those regions demand tangible changes in the quality of their lives. Not only that, political scientists note that the BDP’s older supporter base may have diminished over the years, with many elderly voters stepping back due to age-related issues or passing away.
In his memoir, Brave or Very Foolish? Memoirs of an African Democrat, former president Quett Masire wrote at page 48: “As I tell the story of the BDP, it is important to state a principle that the founders and other leaders took as an article of faith: The party only matters to the extent that it can meet the needs of the nation; otherwise there is no need for it. If it ceases to meet the needs of the country, then it should cease to exist.”
Can the BDP Survive an Opposition Role?
For a party accustomed to governing, an opposition role may prove challenging. Analysts argue that if the BDP loses its parliamentary majority in these elections, the internal discord resulting could intensify as the party grapples with an unfamiliar role. For the most part, the opposition has been complaining that the BDP is sustained through state resources and businessmen benefitting from its incumbency.
This shift would test the party’s adaptability and resilience, with some speculating that a significant parliamentary loss could lead to its fracturing.
The question of whether the BDP can navigate this new territory also reflects a broader ideological struggle within the party: does the BDP stand for continuity or can it redefine itself to resonate with modern Botswana? Some political veterans warn that without substantial reforms, the BDP risks irrelevance, a fate faced by other longstanding ruling parties worldwide that failed to pivot in time.
The Road Ahead and the “First 100 Days”
The idea of the “first 100 days” in political leadership began with US president Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1933, signifying the start of his administration’s vigorous efforts to tackle the Great Depression. Over time, this timeframe has evolved into a global standard, representing a new leader’s immediate effectiveness, priorities and ability to set an agenda.
During these initial 100 days, political leaders typically concentrate on several key elements to consolidate their authority and deliver on campaign promises. First, they prioritise issues based on urgent national or local needs to set the agenda effectively. This clear agenda-setting is essential for enhancing a leader’s credibility and showcasing their commitment to their promises.
Moreover, the first 100 days provide an opportunity for leaders to evaluate and overhaul existing systems. Many new administrations conduct reviews to assess the efficiency and effectiveness of policies and structures, identifying areas that require reform or immediate attention. This period is also critical for establishing a governing style, as it reflects how the administration will interact with different branches of government, the media and the public. Whether collaborative or assertive, political observers say the tone set during the first 100 days often influences the administration’s approach to governance moving forward.
A newly formed government will face several significant challenges, including the ongoing dispute with De Beers, which impacts Botswana’s diamond industry and economic interests. Addressing high unemployment will also require innovative economic revitalisation measures focused on job creation and creating a conducive environment for doing business. The new government will also have to undo the rift occasioned by the prolonged Khama-Masisi dispute to unite a divided public service to improve governance and restore public trust.
Another task will be strengthening state institutions, in particular the Judiciary, law enforcement agencies, crucial for promoting transparency and accountability. Prioritising improvements in health and education is also essential for enhancing citizens’ well-being and supporting sustainable development. It will be intriguing to observe how the new government addresses the constitutional review dilemma. Civil society and other stakeholders widely criticised the process, viewing it as poorly handled and voicing the need for a thorough and legitimate review.