An HRDC report warns that weak job creation, rising graduate unemployment and rapid technological change are widening the gap between qualifications and available work.
GAZETTE REPORTER
Botswana’s job creation outlook is clouding over amid weak employment growth, soaring graduate unemployment and uncertainty over which occupations will generate jobs in the years ahead.
The warning is contained in the Human Resource Development Council’s (HRDC) Annual Priority Skills Report 2026, which says demand for many occupations is projected to remain relatively low, reflecting limited job creation and heightened labour-market uncertainty.
SKILLS SHIFT
The report depicts a labour market being reshaped by technological change, green technologies, climate change and environmental priorities, while warning that Botswana’s education and training system risks continuing to produce qualifications without sufficient employment opportunities.
Priority skills are increasingly concentrated around Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) and specialised skills, signalling a shift from traditional qualification pathways.
However, HRDC warns that enrolment remains substantial in fields already associated with high levels of graduate unemployment.
Industry stakeholders cited in the report argue that the education and training system places too much emphasis on qualifications rather than demonstrable skills.
They want a shift from an education model focused mainly on preparing people for employment towards one that also promotes job creation, research and innovation.
JOBS DECLINE
The warning comes against deteriorating employment indicators.
According to the report, employment levels generally declined between 2019 and 2022. Employment growth subsequently fell from 9.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023 to negative 4.4 percent in the first quarter of 2024, representing a net decline of approximately 34,469 employed people.
HRDC attributes the broader deterioration between 2019 and 2024 to the combined effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, weak performance in key sectors such as mining and tourism, and insufficient economic growth to absorb new entrants into the labour market.
GRADUATES HIT
The consequences are particularly severe for young people. Botswana’s overall unemployment rate stands at 27.6 percent, while youth unemployment is reported at 38.2 percent , levels HRDC describes as high for a middle-income country with a small population.
The number of unemployed graduates increased by 46.7 percent over five years, rising from 48,076 in 2019 to 70,512 in 2024.
An analysis of unemployed graduates in 2023 and 2024 found that business and finance, building and related trades, and health and associated professions were among occupational categories recording high numbers of unemployed graduates.
AUTOMATION THREAT
HRDC also warns that the nature of work is changing rapidly.
Clerical and administrative jobs are becoming increasingly vulnerable to redundancy because of automation, process optimisation and digital transformation.
The report consequently places greater emphasis on skills capable of responding to technological and environmental change, while calling for stronger links between education providers, employers and the wider economy.